The BJP appears sure to win Haryana Election and give it a historical third term. No political party has ever managed to win this state three times in a row. This was achieved in the face of internal leadership conflicts within the BJP and an all-powerful anti-incumbency tsunami.
Trends in the early morning, when counting began at 8 am, indicated that the Congress was gaining ground; some TV networks called it a “Congress Tsunami.” However, by 10 am, it was turning, and it looks like the BJP will win the state for an unprecedented third term.
It will be another significant victory for the BJP as it is likely to win 48 seats in the House of 90 members. So let us look at why the Haryana poll seems like a swing for the saffron partyExit polls had predicted the Congress would win in the state of Haryana, and so even before the Tuesday, October 8 counting began, the party was jubilant. With the C-Voter-India Today exit poll giving the Congress party 50–58 seats and the BJP 20–28 seats in Haryana, the majority of the exit polls had said that the going was going to be easy for the Congress party.
And as the results of the Haryana election began to be counted at eight in the morning, that spirit continued. The majority threshold of 46 seats was once cleared by the Congress, which led by 60 seats. On TV, party members could be seen passing out candy and some of the party’s top brass beaming with pride at the group’s performance.But as the counting went on, the story changed and the state—the one it had dominated for the last ten years—saw a saffron wave. According to the ECI figures till the latest count, the BJP had 49 seats, the Congress has 35, putting it in second place. The INLD and the BSP won one seat each; four Independents remained victorious.
The third time roundIt would be the third successive win by the Bharatiya Janata Party in the state of Haryana Election. It is more remarkable in the sense that no political party has governed Haryana three times consecutively. In reality, the BJP was a fringe party before 2014. 47 of the 90 seats were bagged by the BJP that year solely based on the Modi wave. It added 40 members in 2019, which was less than what it needed to achieve simple majority, yet Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party had given it a helping hand by winning 10 seats, thus electing it to power again.
Leadership tussle
Opposition to the sitting and leadership struggle Since the BJP has been facing the anti-incumbency wave since the last ten years, this electoral success is more significant. The party fared poorly in the state during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections; it could win only five of ten Lok Sabha seats while boasting the saffron party’s 46.1 percent vote share in the general elections of 2024, the rest of the seats were captured by the Congress which struck a 43.7 percent vote. From 58% of the vote in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the vote share of the BJP declined by 12%. The BJP also appeared to be alarmed at the sudden change of leadership from Manohar Lal Khattar to current Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini.
Caste mathematics
The win also comes as a vindication of BJP’s electoral mathematics — consolidating all non-Jat votes. Of course, the Congress desperately needs the votes of the Jats, which make up a large chunk of the state’s voting population. The CMs chosen by the state are, therefore, a restatement of their importance in the power game. For thirty-three years, the state has been ruled by CMs from the Jat community. A very long stint of sixty-four years was terminated in 2014 as the BJP came to power ending the tall Jat politician Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s hegemony as the CM of the Congress party for a long time. Haryana got its Punjab Khatri Manohar Lal Khattar who was nominated by the BJP as the chief minister.
Impact
Victory in Haryana will also help the BJP in its near political contests: beginning with Maharashtra. A victory here can pave the way for better results in Jharkhand, Maharashtra, and eventually Delhi. Maharashtra’s Assembly session ends in November, meaning elections are round the corner. Soon, Jharkhand would also witness elections. Elections in Delhi, the nation’s capital, are scheduled for early next year; some feel these would happen around February 2025.
